Toyota Prius and Chevrolet Colt – The Clean Mobility Opportunity PDF Manual

As concern about global warming, dependence on oil, and urban traffi c congestion mounts, the electrification of the car has become a key focus for all of the major automotive OEMs and policymakers. By 2030, as many as 50% of the vehicles manufactured world-wide are likely to be electrifi ed—HEVs, PHEVs, and battery-EVs—and, by 2020, the worldwide vehicle parc of EVs and PHEVs will be approximately 30 million vehicles.The advent of electrifi cation will trigger momentous changes in the transportation value chain—both on the product side and in the “ecosystem”:
¦ Products. Heavier reliance on battery power creates the need for an external charging infrastructure that will provide the electricity cars need to run on. It also changes the way cars will be designed.

To cite just one example: A new in-vehicle electronic architecture will be required to fulfi ll the premise of reduced cost and weight, with signifi cantly enhanced functionality. ¦ Ecosystem. As a result, the new breed of cars will cause a massive shift in the transportation value chain—from upstream to downstream—with new business opportunities for companies across many industries: vehicle manufacturers, battery companies, smart grid infrastructure fi rms, utilities, and technology providers. We will see a shift in value from the oil-based to the electricity-based value chain in: 1) the components needed to provide the energy, and 2) the services needed to support the customers. Here’s a glimpse of the momentous changes in store and the opportunities and challenges they will create.

Technology®In 1997, the Toyota Prius, a gas-battery hybrid (HEV), made headlines as the fi rst step toward cleaner forms of mobility. By 2012, we will see Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) like the tm Chevrolet Volt, which has a larger battery that makes it possible to achieve 100 mpg. In the same timeframe, a number of OEMs will intro-duce battery electric vehicles that can achieve 100–150 miles on one charge. Many of the required technologies, still in their infancy, will see signifi cant improvements in performance and cost over the next few years. New in-vehicle power electronics will offer the opportunity to redesign key mechatronic systems. Brake-by-Wire or Steer-by-Wire systems are expected not too far in the distance. And we will see a new infl ux of innovation even in the electric motor technology, which has been around for more than a century.

Components
Another big change is the replacement of the gas tank with the battery. A gas tank costs between $15 and $30 today, whereas a Li-Ion battery pack costs $15,000–$20,000. Of course, the cost of the battery will be reduced over time to one-third of today’s levels, but it will never approach the cost levels of the gas tank.Fueling Infrastructure The shift from gas to electricity will drive a radical change in the fueling infrastructure.
Over the life of the vehicle, about $14,000 of oil revenue will be replaced by electric energy revenue of $2,500 per vehicle, by our estimate.

The electric vehicles’ “fuel” will be provided by the utility companies that supply the electricity, as opposed to the oil companies that refi ne crude oil and deliver it to gas stations. These gas stations will be replaced by charging stations connected to a smart power grid. Refueling time will also drop signifi -cantly, due to rapid advancements in charging technology. While charging a battery can take anywhere from three to thirty hours at present, eventually it will take as little as 15 minutes. The low cost of electricity distribution will allow the deployment of a decentralized charging
network. Many more smart, networked chargers will be installed in convenient locations near residential, business, and public areas. There will be approximately 1,400 charging points per 1,000 vehicles, in contrast with less than one gas station per 3,000 vehicles in the oil value chain.

Cost of Ownership PRTM analysis suggests that, on a total cost of ownership basis, the cost of owning and operating a battery electric vehicle will be approximately the same as a comparable gasoline model by 2018/19, without any government incentives or subsidies. The cost omposition, however, will differ in that the electric vehicle will have a higher upfront purchase cost, due to the higher battery cost, but will see lower ongoing operating expenses, due to lower “fuel” and maintenance costs. We expect new business and finance models to emerge that will variabilize the upfront cost and make the transition more attractive for end customers.

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